报告要点

•全球奢侈品消费市场逐步趋稳，体验型消费增速依然超过实体商品，2026年个人奢侈品消费市场预计增长2%至4%，达3650亿至3730亿欧元；

•区域增长格局显著分化，中国市场谨慎复苏，消费偏好加速迁移，驱动市场品类结构分化；
•消费者行为加速演变，AI深度嵌入消费者决策全过程，重塑奢侈品市场吸引力。

近日，贝恩公司与意大利奢侈品制造商行业协会Altagamma联合发布的《2026年全球奢侈品市场研究报告》春季更新中指出，进入2026年下半年，全球奢侈品行业正面临经济波动、地缘政治动荡以及深层文化变迁交织叠加的多重影响，尽管如此，其底层基本面仍显示市场正逐步趋于稳定。

根据报告，2025年全球奢侈品消费总额达到1.443万亿欧元，整体市场在2026年逐步趋稳。研究指出，当前市场正受到四股相互交织的力量的深刻影响：体验型消费价值超越实体商品、区域增长引擎、消费者对奢侈品定义迭代，以及受AI冲击而迅速重构的获客渠道。

根据贝恩基本情景预测，2026年全球奢侈品消费总额将达到1.44-1.47万亿欧元，按恒定汇率计算，同比增长0%至2%。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示：“奢侈品市场正逐步趋稳，但行业并未重回过往发展轨道，而是迈入全新阶段。消费者对奢侈品的需求并未萎缩，只是与奢侈品之间的联结正在发生转变，维系这份联结的核心要素也从单一产品转向品牌内涵。品牌若想取得成功，必须持续重塑自身吸引力，并与消费者以及AI主导的生态形成深度共鸣。”

宏观不确定成为当前市场大背景

2026年上半年，全球奢侈品行业受到一系列宏观经济冲击的影响。中东冲突的爆发推动油价上涨，美国通胀水平升至2023年4月以来的最高点，而消费者信心则跌至历史低位。欧洲央行则于6月重启加息，这是自2023年以来的首次加息，今年全球GDP增速预计较2025年进一步放缓。受此影响，奢侈品企业股价在1月下跌约8%，2月欧洲国际游客消费同比下降约20%，随后出现部分反弹。

体验型消费领跑，实体商品格局重塑

2026年至今，体验型奢侈品消费意愿增速达到实体商品的1.5倍，表明奢侈品市场正发生结构与文化层面的双重转变，消费者心态从“拥有奢侈品”转向“体验当下”。

在体验型消费中，大多数细分品类表现稳健。豪华酒店、私人飞机、游艇及邮轮依托高端化趋势、充足的订单储备与新增客群支撑，展现出强劲发展韧性。高端餐饮则得益于“少而精”的消费观念，实现良好发展。伴随投资者调整资产配置结构，艺术品市场恢复增长。

相比之下，资产属性较强的奢侈品赛道整体承压。其中，豪华汽车受电动化转型冲击持续走弱，是拖累整体市场的主要因素。精品葡萄酒与烈酒市场遇冷，源于消费者采购频次下降，或转向无酒精替代品。随着后疫情时期积压的订单消化完毕，叠加房地产市场持续下行，室内设计与家具行业增速同步放缓。

个人奢侈品：逐步复苏，但不确定性犹在

2025年，个人奢侈品市场销售额小幅下滑至 3580亿欧元（2024年销售额3640 亿欧元；按当前汇率计算下降 2%，按恒定汇率计算增长1%）。2026年市场有望企稳回升，预计全年将增长2%至4%，达到3650亿至3730亿欧元。

•基本情景：预计全年将增长2%至4%，概率约70%，前提是中东局势维持平稳、本土消费保持旺盛、中国市场需求逐步回暖。
•乐观情景：市场同比增速可达4%-6%，概率约为20%，前期是地缘冲突持续缓解、美国市场恢复增长动能、中国市场复苏节奏加快。

•保守情景：市场增速将收窄至0%–2%，概率约为10%，一旦中东冲突再度加剧、旅游业复苏乏力或美洲市场行情走低。

2026年一季度市场表现疲软，按当前汇率计算同比下滑3%-5%。随着宏观环境好转、地缘冲突缓和，二季度市场行情有望小幅回暖。数据显示，约60%的奢侈品企业当期业绩已超越2025年一季度水平。与此同时，去年增速领跑的头部品牌增长有所放缓，而表现偏弱的品牌逐步复苏，品牌间表现差距较2025年收窄。

三大区域增长节奏分化

报告指出，区域市场格局呈现显著分化：美洲市场强劲增长，中国市场谨慎复苏，而欧洲和中东地区则拖累了整体表现。

在美国市场，服装与硬奢（珠宝与腕表）消费全面上升，美妆个护品类亦有小幅增长。美国本土奢侈品牌表现亮眼，剔除美元汇率波动影响后，其一季度销售额同比大幅上涨10%–15%。年轻客群是拉动增长的核心动力：35岁以下群体消费增速较年长群体高出约4个百分点。尤为突出的是，上层中产群体奢侈品消费增速目前近乎是富裕阶层的两倍，反映该市场消费客群正持续扩容。

中国市场呈现谨慎复苏态势。2026年一季度，奢侈品线上销售额同比大幅增长25%-35%。值得注意的是，在品类结构方面，高级成衣增速为皮具箱包的两倍，可见国内消费者的重心正从彰显身份地位的产品，转向更侧重归属感与个人特色的自我表达型产品。与此同时，日本市场则面临入境游客数量放缓，尤其是来自中国的游客减少。

欧洲市场表现不佳，2月国际游客消费同比下滑20%。受区域冲突影响，中东赴欧游客数量锐减，2026年初来自海湾国家地区的奢侈品客群规模缩减15%-25%。不过，欧洲市场于二季度企稳回升：5月退税数据显示，美国、中国及中东游客在欧洲的消费较4月有所提升，初步表明欧洲及海湾国家市场或于二季度迎来转折点。

消费者偏好变迁驱动品类分化；销售渠道与触点持续演变

贝恩分析显示，各品类中珠宝品类表现最优，服饰、眼镜和香水也保持良好的增长态势。美妆品类表现相对落后，皮具箱包和鞋履品类虽仍承压，但已显现复苏迹象。

腕表品类投机性需求退潮，专业收藏鉴赏成为市场核心增长驱动力，收藏家愈发看重工艺水准与稀缺属性，带动二手腕表市场持续升温。除腕表外，二手市场整体持续火热：中古包相关搜索量同比增长一倍以上，约一半奢侈品消费者在购买新品前，都会主动前往二手平台搜索、对比商品信息。

整体来看，渠道大盘发展趋于平缓，但内部格局悄然生变。首先，单品牌零售店持续深耕高品质消费体验，但面临销量压力。其次，旅游零售板块复苏走势分化，海湾国家市场波动尤为明显。多品牌集合店依然受到消费者青睐，却受制于品牌方缩减供货的困境。最后，各大奢侈品牌持续强化直营渠道管控，推动直营渠道趋于稳定。

AI正在深刻重塑奢侈品消费旅程

贝恩指出，消费者越来越多地利用AI进行品牌产品探索、对比和确认，并依托AI佐证自身购买决策。这表明，技术正快速重塑奢侈品的市场吸引力。分析显示，约一半消费者在选购环节已经使用过AI工具，且几乎所有人都表示未来将继续使用。其中，三分之二的消费者利用AI进行产品对比，约四分之一的消费者借助AI探索品牌产品。

贝恩提醒，随着消费者越来越多地通过AI渠道发现产品和服务并确认购买决策，若品牌无法打造适配AI生态的核心优势与品牌共鸣，极易在消费者的选购视野中缺位，可能在市场竞争中处于落后地位。

体育赞助成为奢侈品牌新兴主攻阵地

在当前奢侈品市场销售额中，过去12个月内积极参与体育赞助的品牌的贡献比例超过了80%。不过，目前赞助体育赛事的主要目的依然在于提升文化关注度和“品牌心智份额”，并非直接促进销售增长。

提升体验：新形态涌现，重新定义奢侈品市场发展前沿

体验型奢侈消费正逐步转向以情感和目的为导向的场景。与去年相比，餐饮、休闲和娱乐领域的沉浸式体验预订量同比上涨30%，主要由依托本土文化打造的定制化慢旅行产品所带动。除传统热门旅游目的地之外的小众出游订单同比增长20%，反映出一种“奔赴小众秘境”的风潮。此外，多代同游需求持续升温，约一半的Z世代消费者表示，自身的品牌偏好深受父母影响。

布鲁诺表示：消费者对奢侈品的需求依然强劲，但他们对令人失望的体验或产品的容忍度却不高。超过70%曾暂停购买奢侈品的消费者计划再度选购奢侈品，但未必会再选择原有品牌。各大品牌的核心要务是沉淀品牌内涵、打造适配AI生态的品牌共鸣，才能在消费者回流阶段获得青睐。

强化内涵，赢得市场

贝恩分析指出，消费者对奢侈品意义的理解，正从彰显社会身份的“地位符号”转向聚焦个体内心的“自我实现”，即消费者购买奢侈品的目的不再是为收获他人羡慕，而是用以犒赏自我、见证个人成就，奢侈品的作用不再仅是物质财富的外在彰显，更是个人生活方式的具象表达。

整个奢侈品行业正逐步脱离精英标签，在历经仰慕消费、自我表达阶段之后迈入以“悦享品质生活”为核心的全新时代。在此背景下，贝恩认为奢侈品牌需要聚焦三项重点：

1、依托康养旅程与原始自然秘境的沉浸式体验，打造令人惊艳的品牌体验；

2、面向多元客群圈层，引发品牌文化共鸣；

3、借助AI赋能的创意和个性化服务，为消费者打造专属产品共创平台。

Key Report Highlights

•Global luxury spending reached €1,443 billion in 2025. Luxury experiences continue to outpace tangible goods, but personal luxury goods spending is stabilizing in 2026, with the market (at €358 billion last year, down 2% at current rates but up 1% at constant exchange rates vs. 2024) expected to grow by 2% to 4% for the full year, to €365 to €373 billion under our base case scenario；

•Growth in personal luxury goods is diverging sharply by region: the Americas are surging, led by US-native brands and strong traction among younger consumers, while Europe and the Middle East remain a drag on overall performance；

•Polarization of performance persists, but performance gaps between brands are lower than last year. Roughly 60% of luxury players are performing above their last year comparable results – signs that the market is progressively finding its footing after a turbulent period；

•The consumer is changing as fast as the market: half of luxury shoppers now consult the secondhand market before buying new, and half already use AI in their purchase journey – with nearly all planning to continue doing so；

•Sports sponsorship has quietly become a cornerstone of luxury brand-building, with over 80% of luxury market value now represented by brands that actively sponsored sports in the past 12 months.

The global luxury sector enters the second half of 2026 confronting a compounding polycrisis of economic volatility, geopolitical turbulence, and deep cultural shifts, even as underlying fundamentals point to a gradual stabilization, Bain & Company, in partnership with Altagamma, the Italian luxury goods manufacturers' industry association, reports.

Worldwide luxury spending reached €1,443 billion in 2025 and is on a trajectory of gradual stabilization in 2026, according to the spring update of the Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study. The study maps a market shaped by four interconnected forces: amplifying experiences over ownership, rebalancing growth engines across geographies, evolving consumer meanings of luxury, and rapidly shuffling go-to-customer funnels disrupted by artificial intelligence.

Global luxury spending in 2026 is expected to reach €1,440 to €1,470B in Bain's base scenario for the market, a growth rate of between zero and 2% at constant rates.

"The luxury market is stabilizing, but this is not a return to the old rhythm, it is the emergence of a new one," said Bruno Lannes, senior partner at Bain & Company. "Consumers are not stepping back from luxury. They are stepping forward into a new relationship with it – one defined by meaning, not just by product. The brands that will win are those that can continuously reinvent their relevance and resonate with both consumers and AI-led ecosystems."

Macro turbulence sets the backdrop

The first half of 2026 has been shaped by a series of macro-economic shocks. The outbreak of Middle East conflict pushed oil prices up. US inflation climbed to its highest since April 2023 – while consumer confidence hit an all-time low. The ECB raised interest rates in June for the first time since 2023, and global GDP growth this year is now forecast to come weaker than in 2025. Luxury share prices fell ~8% in January, and international tourism in Europe down 20% year-on-year in February before partially rebounding.

Experiences lead, tangible goods recalibrate

Consumer sentiment towards experiences is outgrowing tangible goods by 1.5x so far in 2026, reflecting a structural and cultural shift from ownership to lived moments. Within the experiences space, most categories are holding up well. Luxury hospitality, private jets, yachts, and cruises are all resilient, driven by premiumization, strong backlogs, and new customer acquisition. Fine dining and gourmet food benefit from a "less but better" mindset. Fine arts are returning to growth as investors rebalance. The weaker spots are luxury assets, with luxury cars remaining a drag amid the EV transition. Fine wines and spirits face softer consumption as drinkers trade down in frequency or switch to alcohol-free. Design and furniture are slowing as post-pandemic backlogs clear and real estate stays constrained.

Personal luxury goods: gradual recovery with scenario uncertainty

The personal luxury goods market dipped slightly to €358 billion in 2025 (from €364 billion in 2024, down 2% at current rates, though up 1% at constant exchange rates) but is expected to bounce back in 2026, growing 2% to 4% to reach €365 to €373 billion. Bain assigns this most realistic case a 70% probability, underpinned by assumptions of continued Middle East stabilization, resilient local spending, and a gradual recovery in Chinese demand. A more optimistic 4% to 6% growth outcome (~20% probability) would require geopolitical tensions to ease further, a boost from renewed momentum of the US market, and China accelerating its recovery. The downside scenario of flat to 2% growth (~10% probability) would reflect renewed Middle East escalation, softer tourism, or weakness in the Americas.

After a soft Q1 2026 (between -5% and -3% at current exchange rates vs the prior year), conditions are expected to slightly improve in Q2 as macro and geopolitical headwinds begin to lift. Around 60% of luxury players are already outperforming their Q1 2025 results, and the wide performance gap that defined 2025 is beginning to close, as last year's winners cool and former laggards recover.

Three speeds across geographies

The regional picture is one of sharp divergence, with the Americas surging while Europe and the Middle East drag on overall growth.

In the US, luxury spending is on the rise across apparel, hard luxury, and to a lesser extent beauty. American-native luxury brands grew by roughly 10% to 15% year-on-year in Q1 compared to the same period last year, without accounting for dollar swings. Younger shoppers are leading the charge – consumers under 35 are spending at a clip about four percentage points faster than their older counterparts. Perhaps more striking, upper middle-class households are now growing their luxury spending at roughly twice the rate of wealthier cohorts, suggesting that the market is succeeding in broadening its base.

China activity is coming back, but carefully. Online luxury sales jumped 25% to 35% in Q1 vs a year earlier. Notably, shoppers are gravitating toward ready-to-wear at twice the rate of leather goods, with consumers stepping back from status purchases in favor of choices leaning more into belonging and self-expression. Japan, meanwhile, is contending with a slowdown in tourist traffic, particularly from China.

Europe is the market's weak link for now. International tourist spending dropped around 20% in February, with Middle Eastern visitors especially affected by regional conflict. The Gulf luxury consumer base shrank by between 15% and 25% in early 2026. That said, the picture has started to show some sign of improvement in Q2: tax refund data from May shows accelerating spending by American, Chinese, and Middle Eastern visitors compared to April – a tentative signal that both Europe and the Gulf may be turning a corner as the second quarter unfolds.

Category performance shaped by evolving consumer priorities. Channels and funnels in flux

Across categories, Bain's analysis shows that jewelry is leading, with apparel, eyewear, and fragrances also holding up well. Cosmetics are lagging, and leather goods and footwear are still under pressure, yet on improving trajectory. In watches, connoisseurship is overtaking hype, with collectors increasingly rewarding craftsmanship and rarity – a dynamic that is also fueling momentum in the resale market. Beyond watches, resale market continues to thrive Vintage bag online searches have more than doubled year-over-year, and roughly half of all luxury shoppers now check the secondhand market before buying anything new. The channel landscape is stalling in aggregate, but a number of internal shifts are underway. Mono-brand retail remains experience-led but faces volume pressure. Travel retail is recovering unevenly, with activity in the Gulf states particularly volatile. Multi-brand retailers are caught between brand pullback and continued consumer interest. Direct online is stabilizing as brands tighten control over direct-to-consumer distribution.

AI is profoundly reshaping the luxury consumer journey

Consumers increasingly discover, compare, and validate their purchases of luxury brands through AI and the technology rapidly redefines luxury relevance, Bain reports. Its analysis finds that approximately half of luxury consumers already use AI in their buyer journey while nearly all plan to continue this pattern. About one in four luxury consumers use it for brand and product discovery, while two out of three of them leverage it for product comparison. Bain cautions that brands that are not building AI-native relevance risk being left behind as consumers increasingly discover products and services, and validate purchase decisions, through AI-mediated channels.

Sports are emerging as a powerful new arena for luxury brand-building

Over 80% of luxury market value is now represented by brands that have sponsored a sport experience in the past 12 months; yet, the focus is still mostly on building cultural credibility and saliency at scale, rather than on driving growth in sales.

Amplifying experiences: new formats redefine the luxury frontier

Experiential luxury is shifting toward emotion- and purpose-led moments. Immersive bookings across dining, leisure, and entertainment are up 30% compared with last year, driven by bespoke, slow-travel formats rooted in local culture. Travel beyond traditional hotspots has grown by 20% vs last year, reflecting an "Elsewhereism" trend, while multi-generational travel is rising: ~50% of Gen-Z say their brand preferences have been shaped by their parents.

Lannes said: "The appetite for luxury remains strong. The tolerance for disappointing experiences or products does not. Over 70% of customers who have left luxury intend to return – but not necessarily to the same brands. The question is whether brands are building the meaning and AI-native relevance to be surfaced and chosen when that moment arrives."

Winning through meaning amplification

Bain's analysis concludes that the meaning of luxury to consumers is evolving from being about social validation towards an individual focus on "self-actualization" – a shift from a desire to be admired towards a goal of personal fulfilment. This new era for the sector means that luxury will no longer define what its consumers own but rather how they live, the report suggests. It sees luxury evolving from elitism through aspiration and self-expression to an era characterized by "living well". Against this unfolding backdrop, Bain identifies three imperatives for brands:

1、Delivering wonder through immersive experiences in longevity escapes and untamed sanctuaries;

2、Building cultural relevance for diverse communities；
3、Offering clients a platform to co-author through AI-enabled creativity and personalization.