贝恩公司最新《2024年中国私募股权市场报告》显示，经济增速下行压力依然存在，叠加IPO退出难度提升、买卖双方估值预期差距的影响，2024年中国私募股权市场预计将延续2023年承压趋势，进入换挡调整期。

报告显示，2023年，中国私募股权市场的投资活跃度延续结构性下降趋势，跌至十年来低点。数据显示，中国市场的发展态势与全球市场基本同步，2023年投资交易额较前5年均值（2018-2022年）下降了58%，跌至410亿美元，交易量也跌去了31%。成长型投资继续主导私募股权投资市场，占交易总金额的60%。

同去年一样，国内普通合伙人（GP）、特别是人民币基金仍是中国私募股权市场最活跃的玩家，在2023年交易额中占到42%，较2022年增长21个百分点。在国内GP、特别是政府扶持基金的积极布局下，半导体、汽车出行等行业投资活跃。国内美元基金则继续关注汽车出行、医药和生物科技等传统行业投资标的。

贝恩公司全球合伙人、大中华区私募股权基金及兼并收购业务主席周浩表示：“和全球市场一样，中国市场也受到了全球经济放缓和宏观经济不确定性的影响。随着中国私募股权市场迎来监管与发展并重的新阶段，私募股权基金需要找准核心投资领域，建设一整套差异化的能力，关注四个重点：1）更聚焦的基金战略，2）持续挖掘投资组合的全潜力，关注GenAI的颠覆性影响，3）持续做好投资组合预售规划，系统化地做到“退出价值最大化”，4）积极运用行业资源和专业知识积累，紧密关注市场，发掘独家交易机会与新的交易主题。”

报告指出，2023年，中国私募股权基金的干火药（待投资金）维持高位，亟待出手投资，但买方与卖方之间的供需仍存在“错位”。一方面，尽管面临日益增长的退出压力，卖方仍追求高交易倍数，希望回收高投资成本。另一方面，买方更趋于谨慎，追求优质资产。在这一背景下，大额控股尤其现金流稳定、基本面稳固的资产更受追捧。

贝恩公司全球合伙人郑思远表示：“当估值回归理性，市场交易活跃度将会迎来新的窗口期。但目前，基金持有的投资组合期限较长，亟待退出实现回报。因此，私募股权基金需要更加积极主动地进行投后管理并寻找退出渠道，提升项目退出收益。退出方式的变化也助力估值理性回归，随着IPO放缓，S基金、战略并购等多样化退出方式将持续上升。同时分红也将更受投资者重视。”

与去年相似，约95%的中国市场IPO发生在中国内地交易所，而不是香港和美国，其中大多数IPO由政府扶持基金和人民币基金所持有或投资。私募股权基金有大量资产亟待退出，而IPO退出通道受限；在这一背景下，S基金在中国市场的重要性正在提升，有望进一步活跃市场。

贝恩调研显示，2024年的募资挑战仍然较大。2023年，人民币募资额稳中有升，但聚焦中国市场的美元募资额却同比下跌44%。其中一个主要原因在于，受经济环境不确定性的影响，有限合伙人（LP）收紧了钱袋子，向其他地区转移资金配置。为此，头部美元基金正在探索人民币业务，扩充募资渠道，例如险资、私人财富管理等。

贝恩认为，想要在中国私募股权市场穿越周期、取得成功，私募股权基金应采取以下措施：

(1) 制定更聚焦的基金管理战略，基于基金核心能力聚焦关键领域投资，提高标的选择门槛。

(2) 持续挖掘投资组合的全潜力，在增长乏力的情况下聚焦降本增效并优化资本支出，同时关注生成式AI的颠覆性影响。
当被问及在部署生成式AI或评估生成式AI潜力时会关注哪些方面时，33%的中国GP和LP表示会关注生成式AI对潜在交易尽职调查的影响，25%受访者表示会寻找生成式AI领域的可投资资产。

生成式AI的颠覆性影响和发展潜力已经成为研究投资组合的一大热门话题。生成式AI将从三方面赋能投资组合：工作效率，客户体验，颠覆式产品和服务。

(3)持续做好投资组合 “预售” 规划，系统化地做到 “退出价值最大化” 。

(4) 发掘独家交易机会与新的交易主题，积极运用行业资源和专业知识积累的优势，关注市场，持续挖掘兼并收购、跨国企业中国业务剥离、跨境出海、一代创始人退出等交易主题。

Greater China’s private equity (PE) market will remain challenging in 2024 due to macroeconomic slowdown, tightening IPO market and continuous divergence in valuation expectations, according to Bain & Company’s Greater China Private Equity Report 2024.

The region’s deal activity continued its structural decline to a 10-year low in 2023, where deal value fell 58% to $41 billion compared to the previous five-year average (2018-2022) and deal volume dropped 31%, consistent with the industry globally. Growth deals continued to dominate, representing 60% of total deal value.

Following last year’s trend, domestic GPs, particularly RMB funds, were the most active players in the market, accounting for 42% of deal value in 2023, a 21-percentage point increase compared to 2022. These players, especially government affiliated ones, also led the surge in interest in sub-sectors such as semiconductors and automotives. Domestic dollar GPs continued to invest in traditional sectors such as automotive & mobility and pharmaceuticals & biotechnology.

“Like the rest of the world, Greater China has not been spared from the global slowdown and macroeconomic uncertainties. Our survey with Greater China industry players shows that challenging exit conditions are some of the top-of-mind concerns this year. For now, 2024 is looking to be another challenging year,” said Hao Zhou, head of Bain’s Greater China PE and M&A practices, based in Hong Kong.

GPs are under pressure given continued high dry power to deploy. There is a mismatch between the sell side and buy side. The sell side faces increasing urgency on deal exit, while pursuing high multiple to cover cost. On the other hand, buy side appears more cautious and are only pursuing high-quality assets. As a result, Bain’s survey shows that GPs are more inclined to target large buyout opportunities with stable cashflow and solid fundamentals.

“GPs will need to focus on quality over scale while they focus on rationalizing portfolios on hand and proactively manage exits to generate positive DPI given the long holding period. Valuation correction is also to be expected, as the industry targets more exits from secondary funds or M&As and relies on dividend payment,” said Nancy Zheng, a Shanghai-based partner from Bain’s Greater China PE practice.

Similar to last year, 95% of Greater China IPOs took place in mainland Chinese bourses instead of in Hong Kong and the US. Most of these IPOs are owned or invested in by government-affiliated funds and RMB funds. IPO challenges are expected to continue with stricter listing requirements as China slows down its IPO approval process to stabilize valuations of listed companies. As IPO exits remain strict and constrained, secondary funds are likely to further gain traction in Greater China driven by the large number of assets held by PE funds.

Respondents of Bain’s survey expect fundraising to be challenging in 2024. While RMB fundraising made a modest increase, China-focused dollar fundraising dropped 44% year-on-year in 2023. A key reason is LPs tightening their purse strings, and allocating their funds to other regions, deterred by ongoing tensions and economic uncertainties. As a result, some established dollar GPs are expanding into the RMB market for additional fund sources particularly in insurance and private wealth.

To stay the course and succeed in Greater China’s PE market, funds need to consider the following:

(1) Reassess fund strategy by articulating fund’s ‘sweet spot’ on where to play, with higher scrutiny in deal selection, especially for new business/deal focus.

(2) Unlock portfolio’s full potential via cost improvement / better capital deployment given lower growth expectation, while assessing Generative AI disruption/ opportunities.

According to Bain’s survey, when asked about current focus on using Generative AI or assessing Generative AI potential, one-third of Greater China GPs and LPs mentioned interest in Generative AI’s impact on due diligence for potential deals while a quarter are looking for assets in the Generative AI space.

(3) Conduct thorough preparation for full portfolio, enabled by systematic ‘Exit Value Maximization’ methodology.

(4) Invest resources to cultivate proprietary deal opportunities by following a top-down methodology to source proactively, and revisit thesis such as M&A, MNC carve-out, cross-border and takeovers from first generation entrepreneurs.